Is it better to be a visitor in extra innings?
This article was first written by Ján Jabrocký in Czech language.
Back in the day I found a statistics, on Twitter or a web, that extra runners on bases are not advantageous for the visitors. I was unable to find it again, and so I at least took a look at the situation from the previous year’s Extraliga. And it would seem this claim might not be correct.
In the previous seasons of Extraliga there were 9 games which went to extra innings, in seven of which we got the result in the 10th inning. Only the 4th game of Czech Series between Draci and Tempo took 12 innings. But to get to the point from the title, let’s look how often did the home team won. It might be surprising that visitors were on the winning side more often, when they won 7 out of 9 games.
Naturally, this is far from a representative sample set. But it can be an indication of the visitors having a slight advantage. The question is why. It might be because the team starts with the runner in a scoring position without any outs, so there’s a higher chance to get the lead. After all, the team in the lead has a psychological advantage. Home team is then pressured more in the following half inning.
Nevertheless, the rules for extra innings change in the upcoming season, with only one runner set, this time on the second base. We will be watching how this affects the advantage.
